2010 outlook: some predictions

I was just reading this post on MC Siegler's "Paris Lemon" and I thought it was worth sharing it with you. It is just about some of his predictions in the TMT space for 2010.

There are two of them on which I would bet:

#2: Microsoft unveiling its own cellphone... as it's been running late in the last decade.

#4: Chrome and Safari gaining market share... can't be otherwise with Apple selling more and more computers and more people being attracted by the Android calling

Google vs Facebook

I have just read today that Facebook is working on creating @facebook.com email -the so-called Project Titan- accounts and Google is considering setting up status updates on Gmail so you can see what your friends are up to. Interesting.

Gmail is a pretty good email service, offering lots of capacity and quite user-friendly. I still miss the typical folder structure because I am one of those who hates having a lot of stuff in his inbox and with Gmail that is exactly what happens. The labels that you can now attach to each emails somewhat replace such feature but to a lesser extent. Overall I am happy with Gmail and given that I have been using it for so long, I find it hard to think about changing overnight to Facebook mail or to any other. The only idea of replacing all my signing in details in every single site in which I am active or the transition process until everyone is aware that you have a new email account are big deterrents.

On the other hand, the move by Google to offer status updates to Gmail users is quite curious. At this point I do not really see myself using it. My audience is different on Gmail, Twitter and Facebook. As of today I make a difference between fun (Facebook) and work (Twitter-Linkedin) and that is why I to not have updates in sync. Audiences differ and I do not necessarily want one audience being aware of some issues and vice versa. My Gmail contacts at this point include people from both audiences so it would be hard for me to filter. The fact that people are spending so much time on Facebook might be a little worrisome for Google and the status update move might work in that direction.

TV shows: the media turtle

There is little doubt that the internet and technology overall have changed the consumption patterns of media. From cds to Spotify, from the Blockbuster across the street to Netflix, from your weekly tv show to Hulu, from the typical movie at a theater to Avatar, from your free-to-air tv to Boxee. From your local theater or home tv to your laptop. But not only have they changed habits, they have changed - or more accurately, they have forced to change - business models.

I am an avid tv shows fan. But I have a problem: I live in Spain and I think that Spanish tv, on average, sucks. Is it because I have lived for a long time in the country that we identify with the showbiz? Maybe...or maybe not. Perhaps it is just about quality.

I mean this because when I think about how things have changed in the media arena in the last years, I feel like the tv show business  is a turtle surrounded by cheetahs. And I pretty much refer to the fact that it is still treated more as a domestic thing than some of its media brothers and sisters.

There is no doubt that viewers all over the globe value good content, regardless its country of origin. A nice movie, relevant news, an addicting tv show... But at the end of the day the industry treats them in a completely different way. Can anyone think of, for example, Avatar being released in Europe 5 months after it is so in the US? Likewise, probably even more obvious, nobody would see the Superbowl or the NBA Finals a week after they are played. But with tv shows it is a completely different story.

As I was saying, I live in Spain and I can't access Hulu, I can't see the last episode of House on Fox.com, I can't buy episodes on iTunes, I have to suffer the previous season on Spanish tv and see the same old boxes on music stores. It sucks.

Why is it like that? Of course I am aware of distribution rights and so forth. But if the windows for movie releases has just shortened (work needs to be done, though, to take a few more steps ahead), please do the same with tv shows. I hate being unable to share my views simply because I am gonna have to wait for months to catch up with my friends. I strongly believe that a huge development is needed.

 I strongly support the real globalization of the business. If the whole world wears Nikes, Reeboks and a couple of other brands, why isn't it possible for us to consume HBOs and Showtimes? Instead, we are force to consume what we don't like and to look for shady ways (piracy) that damage the business and that makes our experience way less enjoyable. I know it will take time but maybe one day...

Preparandonos para la verdadera realidad nacional?

Muchas lineas se han escrito sobre que la verdadera situacion de la economia espanola es mucho peor de lo que la gente se piensa, que los bancos no dejan de maquillar sus cuentas para no aflorar las perdidas derivadas de la crisis inmobiliaria galopante que sufrimos y, en definitiva, que lo peor esta por venir.... Se dice que quizas BBVA ha dado un paso adelante en el duro de camino de empezar a contar la realidad a la sociedad.

En estas, el mismo Roubini, profesor de NYU Stern y uno de los mas reconocidos gurus economicos en los ultimos tiempos, ha apuntado en Davos que Espana es el mayor riesgo para la Union Europea, por encima de la decrepita Grecia.

Si la bolsa anticipa , como se suele decir, lo que esta por venir, seria mejor si no mirasemos al Ibex-35 en la ultima semana.

Apple's new toy

After so much buzz in the last months, Apple has finally presented today its brand new device in San Francisco: a tablet called iPad. This is the official Apple's video. Everyone was expecting this kind of device.

I have to admit that, at first sight, the device was not as groundbreaking as I was expecting. Maybe it is because my expectations after reading so much about it were so high. However, after taking a look at the presentation video, I have to admit that it looks pretty cool. And yes, it makes you want one. But Ithink that I DON't actually "need" it.

The iPad looks awesome to me for web surfing, movie watching and photo viewing. In these areas I feel like it matches and probably exceeds a laptop's capabilities. However, I do not see myself replacing my Macbook with a shiny iPad. Emailing, gaming and book reading are some of the other main tasks for which the device has been designed but I do not feel so strong about them. A physical keyboard is still important for typing (though the iPad's interface looks quite good); I feel like the PS3 and the Xbox of the world are a completely different world; and I still like the feeling of reading an actual book. You can check some articles about its features here.

The design is definitely sleek and the claimed 10-hour battery life is promising. The ibook store and all the application universe are also appealing. On the contrary, there is no USB slot and the hard drive is not that big and can't be expanded, considering that it is intended for massive media consumption.

Finally, I feel like the price is quite good, starting at $499. Cheaper than expected. In fact, many are pointing out that Apple's stock went up when Steve Jobs announced the price point.

Let's see how sales go in the first weeks

A professional reviewer

Looking for reviews on a variety of products and services is easy. Finding good reviews is a little bit harder. I would say that a majority of internet users looks up some reviews before committing a decent amount of money.

However, the reviewing process can easily turn into a nightmare. I remember my last thorough search for reviews at the time I was planning on buying a digital camera. I started looking and at some point I was as in the dark as I was before my search for reviews started. I even had nightmares with reviews attacking me from all over. Lack of information is a problem. Too much information is also a problem (in particular when you cannot separate the good info from the bad one).

That is why this company TopTenREVIEWS caught my eye. They offer reviews of a broad variety of products: from usual suspects like electronics to movies, an endless list of web services (foreign languages, personal finance) or gift ideas. The idea sounds pretty good to me. Obviously, the main point is to become a reliable advisor to the user. In other words, if you end up purchasing something on the basis of their reviews and it turns out to be a complete failure, you will hardly trust the site again. But I will give it a go.

Stock splits and reverse splits

Some of my work colleagues have been working for a few weeks on a traded company's reverse split. This is nothing super new and to be honest I am not aware of the legal intricacies of a reverse split under Spanish law. From my point of view, it just made sense from a volatility perspective, given that this company's stock was trading at quite a low price and thus, a simple rise or drop of 0.01 euros was quite substantial.

But to understand the rationale of stock splits and reverse splits, nothing is better that Damodaran's explanations (post of Jan 18) on the occasion of Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway's decision to split its class B shares. Simple and clear.

I remember those corporate finance class at Stern. Corporate finance made easy.

Hay esperanza para el cine

Me encanta ir al cine, sobre todo cuando las peliculas merecen la pena de verdad. Y es que llevo tres semanas seguidas acertando de pleno. Tres peliculas, completamente diferentes, Tres sobresalientes.

La semana pasada fue Avatar. Toda una experiencia, el mejor ejemplo que recuerdo de la experiencia de "ir al cine", aderezado con el efecto 3D. Si este es el futuro del cine espectaculo, bienvenido sea. Hay futuro. Esta semana ha sido "Up in the air", la ultima de George Clooney. Otro tipo de cine, el cine de contar historias, de ese que te hace pensar y reflexionar durante y despues de la pelicula. Lo mismo me ocurrio hace tres semanas con Celda 211, un peliculon con sello nacional, con unos actores excelentes y que te mantiene en vilo durante dos horas. Estas tres pelis son perfectos ejemplos de que hay esperanza para el cine.

En los ultimos anhos se habla mucho de que la industria del cine esta en peligro de extincion. La pirateria, internet, las nuevas formas de consumir entretenimiento, la falta de talento, ingenio y originalidad, etc. Es cierto que los habitos de los consumidores han cambiado sustancialmente y que la industria y los reguladores han ido y siguen yendo varios pasos por detras en su proceso de adaptacion al nuevo landscape. Pero no es el fin del mundo.

2009 se puede decir que ha sido un buen anho para el cine, lo cual tiene aun mas merito si consideramos el entorno de crisis generalizado a nivel global (aunque esta industria siempre se ha considerado bastante resilient). Asi lo indican las siempre frias cifras. En EE.UU, se estima que el box office de 2009 fue alrededor de un 8% superior a la del anho precedente. En Espana, igualmente, la asistencia al cine se ha incrementado en 2009 por primera vez en cinco anhos.

No cabe duda de que nos encontramos en un momento importante para la industria del cine. Ojala el 2009 haya supuesto un punto de inflexion que permita mirar al futuro con algo mas de optimismo. Sin perjuicio de que hay que ir adaptando la distribucion y comercializacion del cine, asi como el marco legal correspondiente, a las nuevas tecnologias y al comportamiento de los consumidores, empecemos por preservar y potenciar el talento. Con buenos contenidos, hay futuro. Como se suele decir content is king.

Socially in sync?

Being in sync social network-wise is not easy, in particular if you are not programming-savvy. Dealing with code, even if it is the simple one from a Blogger template is a nightmare for me.

Yesterday evening I decided to try to link up my blog, Facebook, Twitter and Linkedin. After some quite thorough research I realized that it is a little more complicated than it seems to do that. Conclusions: (1) you can link up Linkedin and Twitter quite easily (I think I have succeeded!); (2) you can have Twitter and FB in sync, as long as the input comes from Twitter, not the other way around; (3) it is possible to link FB and Linkedin but only by syncing Linkedin with Twitter and Twitter with Facebook).

Then the blog comes into play: (1) it is quite easy to share your posts on Facebook by including a share button on your blog; (2) it is a little more complicated with Twitter, and I have ended up using Twitterfeed; (3) it is not possible to share a post on Linkedin directly, I reckon. What you need to do is to share it on Twitter and then hope for the Twitter-Linkedin sync to work. This post will actually test if (2) and (3) are right.

Update: It has actually worked!

I do not mean to have a super cool blog full of gadgets, widgets and so forth, but I have to admit that I was surprised by the very little help that you can actually get from Blogger tools. Fine, it is a free service and probably if you go for a premium service things will flow better. But still, I was hoping for a little more help, considering that it is open source.

This exercise has made me think about where and with whom I want to share this blog. First I was thinking about sharing it with my FB community (I even shared a post that I removed later) but I realized that it is not the right forum, considering that this is not a pure personal blog and most people probably don't give a shit about the stories I tell here. At the end of the day, I am writing this with a professional mindset, so my Linkedin network is the right audience and Twitter the tool that I have to use for such purpose (and in which I have to dig a little more). Each social network serves its purpose. I seem to have figured out what I want from each.

The Apple effect

I still remember when around 20 years ago my dad brought home the first computer I ever had the chance to use. It was a Mac with 1Mb ram which wouldn't let me play an Indiana Jones graphic adventure game that a friend from class had. It actually required 2 Mb ram. Shortly after my dad got a "portable" Mac. I mean "portable" -not portable- because it was like a small suitcase. Quite thin for that time...but huge would not be enough for today's standards. That was my first experience with computers.

For 15 years Apple disappeared from my life. Then, in 2006 my friends bought an iPod nano as a farewell present, shortly before I left for my new life in New York and Apple came somehow back to my life. Microsoft and Windows had taken over and I must admit that, for the most part, they did the job.

After two years in New York, by mid-2008, I became a Mac (again). It is curious to see the different perceptions about Macs between Spain and the US. In Spain it is still widely regarded as a tool for designers, advertisers and so forth. In the US, on the contrary, anyone can use it. Well, you have to be cool to use it. Or, more accurately, it makes you look cooler. Stupid or not, that's what it is. It is the same than buying a iced tall mocha from Starbucks; it looks so much better than a latte from McDonalds. But leaving perceptions aside, Macs - and Apple products as a whole -  are great products and they have this charm that make me own more of them. They have that something that makes me visit the Apple stores anywhere I go as if they were scenic points. That's what I call the Apple effect.

I was thinking about this today as a number of Spanish dailies told stories about the new Apple's tablet to be supposedly presented on January 27 ("Come see our last creation"). This is kind of new in Spain. It is something common to hear and read analysts and journalists about Apple's new products, about the effect of the new devices in the company's bottom line or in the stock price. But I still find it somewhat curious to read columns about this in Spain. By being innovative and by bringing to the market products such as iPods, iPhones, iTunes, iMacs, etc., Apple is stepping in new territories and,  expanding its footprint and creating a new generation of people awaiting vividly for Apple's next thing.

I have recently started reading a book called "Return to the little kingdom", which tells the story of how Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak founded Apple back in the 1970s. The only similar book I have ever read is "Losing my virginity", Richard Branson's autobiography, which also narrates how the Virgin empire was built from scratch. At the end of the day, both Virgin and Apple have many things in common, starting from their leaders, Branson and Jobs, and the feelings that both companies convey to millions of consumers.

I honestly think that I am far from being an Apple freak but I must admit that it does have that something that, at the end of the day, makes you write posts like this...

Takeaways from traveling

I have had the opportunity to enjoy a 3-week trip to Australia over Xmas time. In addition to swimming trunks, sunglasses and short-sleeved t-shirts, I took my "technical" equipment with me. A couple of quick takeaways:

(1) I really need to be connected. I haven't watched tv, I haven't spoken on my cell much...but I have really longed for an internet access all the time. Not from a laptop but, more importantly, from my phone. I can survive easily sending emails rather than calling, I like updating my Facebook status and uploading pictures, Google maps is a life-saver, mobile access keeps you entertained while waiting for the bus... No doubt, I do need it.

(2) My Storm sucks. This is nothing new, though. In addition to being slow and battery-consuming as hell, the installed applications (from Facebook to Google Maps + push email) will not work with another carrier, even if your phone is unlocked (I guess this applies to all Blackberries). I still find this hard to believe. I am sure there is a way... but it is not user friendly, at least for me. I had to access everything through my browser. A pain in the neck. Hope Android and Apple do a better job at this.

(3) Telcos are dinosaurs. They do operate in a lively sector, they are supposed to provide state-of-the-art new services, they are at the forefront of technology... but at the end of the day they are dinosaurs. How is it possible that a global company such as Vodafone -my service provider in Spain- cannot offer me a better deal in Australia -where it is present- than any other carrier? Rather than global companies, they are a sum of local ones. Same thing applies to the Telefonicas and Oranges of the world, I pressume.

Had Vodafone offered me a good deal, I would have gone with them while in Australia. On the contrary, by not giving me the unlocking code, they forced me to go to Storm Unlocker (check it out, really cool, quick and effective, and even featuring Paypal) and switch to another carrier instead.

Algunas conclusiones blogueras durante las navidades

Han pasado 4 meses desde la ultima vez que escribi un post. Cuatro meses de largas horas de trabajo que me han impedido contribuir en este foro como me hubiese gustado. Cuatro meses en los que, por que no decirlo, quizas me he instaurado en la comodidad relativa de no anadir una tarea mas a mi rutina habitual. Es posible que quizas mi objetivo inicial resultaba demasiado ambicioso en cuanto a ser prolifico con asiduidad. Vamos a ver si en 2010  consigo darle la vuelta a la situacion.

Tengo claro que es importante para mi el mantener este blog activo. Al desconectarme del blog me he desconectado igualmente en gran medida del mundillo TMT (el del VC y PE los sigo practicamente a diario) y debo reconocer que lo echo de menos y que incluso debo decir que no puedo permitirmelo. Mantenerse "tuned" lleva considerable trabajo y me da pavor meterme en el Reader para ver que tengo tropecientos posts pendientes de leer en Techcrunch, en el AVC de Fred Wilson o en el feed de The Hollywood Reporter, por decir alguno. No me va a quedar mas remedio que poner el contador a cero porque si no va  a ser demasiado estresante.

Y como este blog es importante, tengo que poner medidas para hacerlo viable. De entrada, he decidido levantarme antes de lo habitual al menos un par de dias a la semana - hoy ha sido el primero - para poder leer con calma e intentar escribir. Pero tampoco quiero convertirme en un esclavo del blog en si mismo. En el termino medio esta la virtud que diria aquel. Igualmente, si hay que ver un poco menos la television de vuelta a casa, asi debera ser. Y claro, habra que buscar un huequito el fin de semana tambien.

Vamos a ver si esto no se queda en un mero intento y persevero y vuelvo a dar motivos para que algunos volvais a pasaros por aqui de vez en cuando.

Work, life and technology

Saturday morning and I am working at home. Nothing too urgent but the kind of boring and administrative stuff (a global IT project for the firm) that you never find the time to do... So, since I have been provided with the technology (an encrypted "token"), I can connect from home as if I was in the office. This is step 2. Step 1 is obviously the corporate Blackberry from work. Both are supposed to help us be in the loop and to enable us to work from anywhere. But does technology help or is this just a burden that we must carry on our shoulders?  There was an interesting article today on El Pais about this.

On the one hand, it is obvious that I'm doing my work from home today, which is way better than going to the office. Likewise, having the opportunity to follow up on things during working hours while outside of your office is pretty good and improves productivity and the handling of things

On the other hand, as I am growing older I increasingly tend to think that the negative aspect of "company-sponsored" technology outranks the positive one. I remember that in 2002 I got my first Blackberry from work at the firm I used to work for. Believe it or not, not many people had one of these devices at the time and people commented how lucky I was too have it. Wrong. I worked under a lot of pressure and it was literally impossible to disconnect, the worst aspect being the possibility of being reached by clients anywhere, anytime (I remember myself having a 1-hour call with a client as I walked along the Lanzada beach, in Galicia in the middle of my August holiday). Having perks such as free calls from my corporate cell was not enough to keep the balance.

My current job involves far less pressure (and calls from clients in my free time are less likely) but I still see myself checking emails after work, during lunch times or during vacation days. Plus, as I was saying, I end up working on a Saturday. And all this work time is not in my contract and, consequently,  I am not getting paid for this. Maybe I should just not do it, but I'm the kind of guy who likes to get things done.

I'm planning a great three-week trip for Xmas and I'm already hoping that I have no reception there... however, I cant help thinking about the the first day after my vacation if I am completely absent for such a long time... It is kind of a catch.

Ebay sells stake in Skype

Just a few words about eBay's - the worldwide leading auction marketplace - sale of a 65% stake in Skype to a number of VC firms and private investors for around $1.9bn (which values the company at around $2.75bn, slightly less from the $3.1bn that eBay paid in 2005. So, not a great investment for eBay.

I do love Skype, it is an amazing tool. It helps me keep in touch with my friends overseas (mostly in the US and beyond) at a very reasonable price. Yeap, I am a premium user and I have my monthly plan with which I can make unlimited calls to cells and home lines in the US.

But I have never seen much fit between eBay and Skype. It is a kind of obvious statement, I guess. I love eBay too but what is the point? I am sure that the money that comes in will be useful in improving the current service and, who knows, maybe  in taking Paypal (eBay's payment platform, which is becoming increasingly relevant for eBay) to a new level, which makes much more sense to me.

Business models inciertos

Ayer hablaba con un amigo sobre Spotify , la ultima sensacion del negocio musical en internet. Spotify es un servicio que, tras descargarte un pequenho programa , te permite acceder ilimitadamente en streaming a multitud de canciones y albums de gran cantidad de artistas, de ahora y de antes.

El modelo de negocio tiene tres niveles, por decirlo de alguna manera. En el nivel basico, el usuario puede escuchar las canciones integras gratuitamente, si bien cada cierto tiempo hay un anuncio obligatorio de unos 30 segundos. El nivel "day-pass"permite acceder al usuario, tras el pago de 0.99 euros,  acceder a las canciones sin tener que "padecer" anuncio alguno durante 24 horas. El nivel "premium", por 9.99 euros al mes, permite igualmente escuchar canciones sin anuncios indefinidamente.

No tengo ni idea si Spotify gana dinero al dia de hoy. Si me preguntaran, diria que no, o que si lo hace no es demasiado. Por un lado, dudo que los ingresos sean muy altos (yo soy usuario y la verdad es que me va bien la opcion basica, no siento necesidad alguna de hacer un upgrade, y creo que ese debe de ser el caso de la mayoria). Por otro lado, estan los royalties que Spotify paga a las discograficas, que seguro que son un buen pico. La verdad es que no me salen las cuentas asumiendo un mini-anuncio aqui y alla.

Pero Spotify es un ejemplo mas. Otras empresas, iconos del mundo internet actual, como Facebook , Twitter , Youtube ... o negocios de toda la vida como los relacionados con la industria editorial, que no han sabido como adaptarse a los nuevos tiempos (periodicos, revistas, etc.), no tienen un modelo de negocio claro y confian en encontrar la formula magica que les permita monetizar las en muchos casos ingentes audiencias con las que cuentan. Parece claro que el modelo del "todo gratis" financiado con publicidad no resulta sostenible ni rentable, al menos para organizaciones que alcanzan un tamanho considerable y cuyos gastos estructurales aumentan continuamente. Encontrara alguien esa piedra filosofal?