The iPhone 4 effect

By now it is of public domain that the iPhone 4 is out and that it is being a massive success. I have read reports highlighting that Apple may have sold 1.5 million plus devices on the first day, which would turn the iPhone4's opening the most successful in Apple's history so far.

I have read some preliminary reviews and pretty much everyone agrees on how cool the device is and on the fact that it is the best cellphone out there in the market for the time being.

The good news for Spain is that Telefonica will not enjoy distribution exclusivity (along the lines of AT&T's in the US) any more. Apparently, both Orange (France Telecom's mobile subsidiary) and Vodafone (my carrier) will be distributing it too. Leaving aside the very important competition-related issues (i.e more creativity and competitiveness around mobile data plans), this means that I will have access to an iPhone 4 without changing carriers. I have to admit that I am quite happy with Vodafone's service after 20 months (well, if I do not include the shitty Storm... but that was my fault) and I am not planning on switching.

Though the iPhone 4 is really cool, I would lie if I did not say that the shadow of Android is quite large. Over time, there are more and more voices claiming that Apple's closed environment - as opposed to Android's openness - is a bummer and gives Apple to much power. There are sleek Android devices out there and there will be more coming too. At the end of the day, it seems like I will be more and more dependent on both Apple and Google. Isn't it a bit scary?

Anyway, it won't be until mid-July that the iPhone 4 will land in Spain. I am really looking forward to the carriers' marketing campaigns...

AAPL > MSFT

I need to catch up with my writing. I have been most busy over the past two or three weeks but I hope I am gonna have some more time in the coming weeks. Wait and see.

Today is a remarkable and quite meaningful day in the tech era. It signals the change in trends that many have predicted long ago. Apple has become larger than Microsoft.  By today's closing bell Microsoft's market cap was $219bn vs that of Apple's of $222bn

The chart below shows the evolution of both stocks and the Nasdaq over the last 10 years. Apple's stock has skyrocketed and the return over 10 years has been 1000%. On the other hand, if I had put my money on Microsoft, today I'd have less money in absolute terms (and let's leave the time value of money aside).

But what I find most shocking is how similar the Nasdaq's and Microsoft 's trendlines look. It's pretty much the same since 2004!! Microsoft has had a very profitable business over this period of time but, still, it has not been able to beat the index.

This situation confirms Apple's health: the iPhone, the iPod, the increasing clout of macbooks. Apple is a company that is in fashion and so many people love it. Microsoft, despite being very profitable yet, has lost its mojo and there are many doubts about some of its businesses (operating system/explorer, search/bing, mobile, etc.).

Simply put, if you were given the chance to work at Apple or at Microsoft, what would you do?

iAd: Apple entra en la batalla de la publicidad en el movil

Hace unos dias Apple presento su nuevo sistema operativo para el iPhone, el denominado IPhone OS4, que incluye diversas mejoras como la posiblidad de multi-task (utilizar varias aplicaciones a la vez) o la de organizar las distintas aplicaciones en carpetas. Pero lo que mas me llamo la atencion fue la presentacion de iAd, una nueva plataforma que permitira incluir publicidad de calidad (video, etc.) en las aplicaciones creadas por los desarrolladores. Un incentivo mas para desarrollar mas y mejores aplicaciones para el ecosistema iPhone.

Pero mas alla de todo esto, lo importante es que Apple se mete de lleno en la pelea por los dolares y los euros derivados de la publicidad, algo que al dia de hoy es practicamente un territorio propiedad de Google.

La perspectiva es en todo caso diferente. Mientras Google concentra su publicidad (y por tanto los ingresos) en las busquedas, Steve Jobs se centra en el uso por los usuarios de las aplicaciones. Tiene sentido. Atacar a Google en un ambito como el de las busquedas en el que es el lider destacadisimo probablemente sea una batalla abocada al fracaso (que se lo digan a Microsoft y Yahoo). Por otro lado, la popularidad de la App Store y de sus aplicaciones para el iPhone las convierten en un activo por explotar.

Os adjunto el link a la pagina de Apple donde podeis ver el keynote de Jobs sobre diversas cuestiones (iAd comienza hacia el minuto 44 del video y, por cierto, las cifras que maneja sobre la base del uso actual de aplicaciones y del numero de iPhones vendidos - 1.000 millones de anuncios al dia - son bastante impresionantes. Indicar igualmente que Apple planea entregar a los developers el 60% de los ingresos derivados de la publicidad).

En un momento en que se empieza a intuir cada vez mas la lucha por convertirse en el sistema operativo de referencia (yo apuesto sobre todo por iPhone y Android y en menor medida RIM, Windows y Symbian, en este orden), los ingresos derivados de las aplicaciones para moviles no hacen esa lucha sino mas interesante todavia.

Return to the little kingdom

I finally finished yesterday "Return to the little Kingdom" by Michael Moritz. A Story about how Apple was founded and turned into a big company -though the story ends many years before the Apple we know today was created (the writer covers the most recent events in the brand new 2009 epilogue).

Anyway, I have not loved it. It is just ok. What I have loved the most is to feel the thrill of founding a company and make it grow, though it is obviously not an easy task.

I am posting below the review I have written on Amazon. I always use Amazon to see some reviews before I purchase something, so I find it fair to do the same for others.

Next on my shelf is "Too big to fail" on how Wall Street cracked a year and a half ago.

Apple's new toy

After so much buzz in the last months, Apple has finally presented today its brand new device in San Francisco: a tablet called iPad. This is the official Apple's video. Everyone was expecting this kind of device.

I have to admit that, at first sight, the device was not as groundbreaking as I was expecting. Maybe it is because my expectations after reading so much about it were so high. However, after taking a look at the presentation video, I have to admit that it looks pretty cool. And yes, it makes you want one. But Ithink that I DON't actually "need" it.

The iPad looks awesome to me for web surfing, movie watching and photo viewing. In these areas I feel like it matches and probably exceeds a laptop's capabilities. However, I do not see myself replacing my Macbook with a shiny iPad. Emailing, gaming and book reading are some of the other main tasks for which the device has been designed but I do not feel so strong about them. A physical keyboard is still important for typing (though the iPad's interface looks quite good); I feel like the PS3 and the Xbox of the world are a completely different world; and I still like the feeling of reading an actual book. You can check some articles about its features here.

The design is definitely sleek and the claimed 10-hour battery life is promising. The ibook store and all the application universe are also appealing. On the contrary, there is no USB slot and the hard drive is not that big and can't be expanded, considering that it is intended for massive media consumption.

Finally, I feel like the price is quite good, starting at $499. Cheaper than expected. In fact, many are pointing out that Apple's stock went up when Steve Jobs announced the price point.

Let's see how sales go in the first weeks

The Apple effect

I still remember when around 20 years ago my dad brought home the first computer I ever had the chance to use. It was a Mac with 1Mb ram which wouldn't let me play an Indiana Jones graphic adventure game that a friend from class had. It actually required 2 Mb ram. Shortly after my dad got a "portable" Mac. I mean "portable" -not portable- because it was like a small suitcase. Quite thin for that time...but huge would not be enough for today's standards. That was my first experience with computers.

For 15 years Apple disappeared from my life. Then, in 2006 my friends bought an iPod nano as a farewell present, shortly before I left for my new life in New York and Apple came somehow back to my life. Microsoft and Windows had taken over and I must admit that, for the most part, they did the job.

After two years in New York, by mid-2008, I became a Mac (again). It is curious to see the different perceptions about Macs between Spain and the US. In Spain it is still widely regarded as a tool for designers, advertisers and so forth. In the US, on the contrary, anyone can use it. Well, you have to be cool to use it. Or, more accurately, it makes you look cooler. Stupid or not, that's what it is. It is the same than buying a iced tall mocha from Starbucks; it looks so much better than a latte from McDonalds. But leaving perceptions aside, Macs - and Apple products as a whole -  are great products and they have this charm that make me own more of them. They have that something that makes me visit the Apple stores anywhere I go as if they were scenic points. That's what I call the Apple effect.

I was thinking about this today as a number of Spanish dailies told stories about the new Apple's tablet to be supposedly presented on January 27 ("Come see our last creation"). This is kind of new in Spain. It is something common to hear and read analysts and journalists about Apple's new products, about the effect of the new devices in the company's bottom line or in the stock price. But I still find it somewhat curious to read columns about this in Spain. By being innovative and by bringing to the market products such as iPods, iPhones, iTunes, iMacs, etc., Apple is stepping in new territories and,  expanding its footprint and creating a new generation of people awaiting vividly for Apple's next thing.

I have recently started reading a book called "Return to the little kingdom", which tells the story of how Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak founded Apple back in the 1970s. The only similar book I have ever read is "Losing my virginity", Richard Branson's autobiography, which also narrates how the Virgin empire was built from scratch. At the end of the day, both Virgin and Apple have many things in common, starting from their leaders, Branson and Jobs, and the feelings that both companies convey to millions of consumers.

I honestly think that I am far from being an Apple freak but I must admit that it does have that something that, at the end of the day, makes you write posts like this...