The 2017 tech year-in-review

The year is about to come to an end and I wanted to jot down a few thoughts about some of the events that I have found most significant in the tech and startup spaces over the last 12 months.

(1) Amazon goes brick and mortar

 If there is one major corporate transaction that I would highlight that would be Amazon's $14bn purchase of Whole Foods. We are all well aware of Amazon's clout and how much many of us rely on it for buying and selling stuff. This acquisition is a game changer and, even more importantly, it seems like it is not going to be the last of its kind, as in recent weeks there have been multiple rumors, in particular around French leader Carrefour, about Amazon acquiring in Europe.


As NYU Stern's professor Scott Galloway usually says, Amazon is slashing value out of traditional retailers and is likely to become the first $1tn company in the world.  Interestingly, he also points out how Amazon is a threat for competition and advocates for antitrust action that could easily to breaking the company up in different pieces.

Even in such a scenario, Amazon is a global "darling". Case in point: the beauty pageant / auction launched by Amazon among American cities for the purpose of erecting its second American HQ. An astonishing 238 proposals have been received. Game on.

(2) The crypto hype
As blockchain technology evolves, 2017 will be remembered as the year when cryptocurrencies became a new hot thing in tech. I would not dare say the became mainstream but it is obvious that when your mother asks you what bitcoin is and how she can invest in it, there is something going on. I already blogged about this some months ago.

The main cryptocurrencies (in particular bitcoin and ethereum) have had dramatic price increases (chart below; source: Coinbase), which has led to lots of market debate as to whether we are in a new bubble or if, on the other hand, bitcoin is for instance the new refuge replacing gold. There are arguments and interest of all kinds. From Jamie Dimon's - JPMorgan Chase's CEO - calling people "stupid" for buying bitcoin to the CME Group's launch of bitcoin futures a few weeks ago.

But this crypto frenzy has gone past bitcoin and ethereum. ICO is the acronym of the year and funds raised through this mechanism have exceeded $3bn. We have seen a proliferation of new ethereum-based tokens relying, in many cases, in dubious business models.

I took the time this year to learn a bit about all these topics and decided to invest (ie. gamble) some money in various cryptocurrencies to give this thing a shot. It did not go badly, although I am kind of expecting a short term correction and have therefore cashed in for the most part. In any case, in spite of diverse theories, I'd argue nobody has a real clue about how to value these new assets and how things are going to go down the road.

(3) The Uber crash

Uber has been for years the darling among startups and venture capital investors. Aggressive growth all over the world, increasing valuation round after round, huge losses relying on future market domination...and all of this relying on a "bro-kind-of culture" of work hard play hard.

In 2017 the foundations of Uber became under substantial scrutiny as a result of a very unfortunate  sexual harassment scandal which, rather than an isolated event, proved to be part of the company's culture itself. The whole thing led to CEO Travis Kalanick's resignation and to significant user backlash...and planted the seed for the #MeToo movement - which Time magazine has fairly acknowledged as "person of the year" - that exploded with the whole Harvey Weinstein "plot" .

I am very curious to see how Uber recovers under new CEO Dara Khosrowshahi after having moved into such a slippery slope. Corporate culture matters and now that culture-related scandals are reportedly bringing valuation down, executives will most likely pay more attention to it.

(4) Disney threatens Netflix

Star Wars: Episode VIII premiered in L.A. on December 9 and just a few days later in Europe. But this was not the only surprise that The Walt Disney Company had for us before the year end. On December 14 it was announced that Disney would be acquiring 21st Century Fox film and tv studios for $66bn (including debt) which, among others includes the FX and National Geographic networks, a large additional stake in Hulu and valuable franchises such as Alien and Avatar, or TV shows such as "How I met your mother". A massive move that I expect will change the playing field very significantly in the coming years.

I have thought for a long time that entertainment consumption has changed forever and that TV as we have known it is doomed. Disney has understood this and in the last year they have amassed a ton of content on top of their traditional stuff, including Marvel, the Star Wars franchise. Now it is this bold move.

In the last months there have been rumors about Netflix being a target for Disney. However, this may no longer be the case. After deciding to pull content from Netflix, all points in the direction of launching its own service, either from scratch or on the back of Hulu. If you add sports content (i.e. ESPN) to the mix, we do have a new streaming battle ahead. Watch out Netflix, Amazon.

(5) The advent of fake news

2017 has been the year when fake news have become a major threat globally. It all started at the time of the US presidential election in late 2016. As it has been proven, Russia played a a central part in creating fake news that substantially contributed to changing public perception and generating opinion in favor or Trump. Upon becoming president, Trump started a PR war accusing CNN and others of being fake news. Several examples of this unacceptable activity followed for instance with the French election and, more recently, with the pathetic allegations against Spain's democracy fabricated by the Catalonian pro-independence block (and the likes of Russia and Venezuela) supporters) in their crazy and illegal pursue of independence.

Fake news are a 21st century weapon aimed at bringing down the foundations of democracy as we know it. And it is in this instance that technology companies - in particular Facebook and Google given their size and business models - have a huge responsibility to prevent, or at the very least minimize, fake news from happening. They have the budget, the resources and, increasingly, the technology (e.g AI) to address this. I am hoping that they honor their duty.

It's been an interesting year. I am sure 2018 is going to be a ride, which I am going to have to follow even closer. More to come soon.

Happy holidays!

Fast decision making: reflecting on Jeff Bezos' annual letter

A few days ago Jeff Bezos, Amazon's founder and CEO delivered his usual annual letter to shareholders. A short must read that is always full of management wisdom, since the first one he wrote back in 2017 - see both the latest and the first ones here.

Rather than reading the countless pieces published about the latest letter, I have followed Brad Feld's advice and have gone directly into the "source".  How he defines Day 1 - "I’ve been reminding people that it’s Day 1 for a couple of decades" and Day 2 - "Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating, painful decline. Followed by death. And that is why it is always Day 1” - for a company is, simply put, masterful.

He highlights a number of drivers for Day I defense. Leaving aside other aspects, I would like to focus on one of them - high-velocity decision making. According to Bezos, it is not just crucial to make high-quality decisions. It is crucial to make them fast, otherwise Day 2 can be taken for granted. I couldn't agree more. And this just not applies to large corporations such as Amazon but also to any kind of company, yet the most nascent ones that, following an analogous terminlogy, are in Day 0 of their development.

In a very simple, yet compelling, manner, Bezos highlights a few points that drive such high-velocity decision making:

• decision processes: he argues to "never use a one-size-fits-all decision-making process". Since situations vary, this makes all the sense.  However, a sensu contrario, and as obvious as it sounds, it is fundamental to have a decision process - or several of them - in place. In other words, do not justify not having decision making processes on the basis of how different each situation is;

• availability of information: obviously, we all like to make as informed decisions as possible. But in real life we hardly face such ideal situations. That is why Bezos points out that "If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow" and he argues how expensive being slow in making decisions is. In short, make a decision as early as you can and once you have a reasonable degree of information. You can always change courses. Holding off too much will kill your company;

• disagree and commit: I truly love this one, as it transpires humbleness and trustworthiness in those around you. Leadership. It is natural not to be certain at all times. In those circumstances where you are uncertain, most likely everybody feels similarly. And whoever is in charge of a company, team, project is waiting to be actually convinced to make a decision, that may take ages. It's not about letting everyone do whatever they feel like doing, "a chance for the team to weigh [the boss'] view, and a quick, sincere commitment to go their way". Any organization needs people at any level who can actually be able to push in the same direction than the organization itself when in certain circumstances the former may not necessarily agree with the direction adopted.

• spotting what is wrong and escalating: sometimes people and teams are not aligned and that creates multiple inefficiencies, reaching the very unfortunate point where "whoever has more stamina carries the decision", which is truly demotivating and frustrating. Therefore, is critical to escalate to sort things out and provide alignment which, at the end of the day, requires considering the three previous points.

All these characteristics must necessarily be part of a company's DNA. Otherwise, the company will be moving from Day 1 (or even Day 0, as I suggested before) to Day 2 at the speed of light.

Learning from tech leaders I admire

Today I have read a very interesting piece that Fast Company - one of my must-read publications -  has recently produced on Uber and its CEO Travis Kalanick. It is priceless to better understand the company's ethos and driving forces. This has led me to think a bit about some of the people in tech I admire.

When it comes to leaders in the technology space, a few names come to mind quickly to the general public. A simplified classification I have come up with - Forbes, for instance, has its own ranking of "The Richest People in Tech" - would break down such leaders in three groups:

(1) those who are no longer active or in executive roles but whose influence is still undoubted today (Steve Jobs, Larry Ellison, Bill Gates);

(2) those who have rather recently disrupted the world (and continue to do so) and have already significantly cashed out (Mark Zuckerberg, Sergey Brin and Larry Page, Jeff Bezos, Mark Cuban); and then

(3) those whose companies are on the verge of becoming - to some extent they already are - the next big thing (Travis Kalanick, Elon Musk, Brian Chesky)

Week-in week-out I read a lot of stuff about many of them. And there is always stuff you can learn and try to apply to your more mundane existence. Some takeaways for my own sake are the following:

- long term vision vs. short term profit: I love Amazon's Jeff Bezos' approach to this and how he continues to drive innovation at Amazon by continuing to invest heavily in new services and products (Prime, Amazon Web Services, you name it...), instead of giving in to The Street's pressures for boosting the company's present stock price. At the end of the day, and as obvious as it sounds, the latter will be accomplished if things work out just fine - the last months' stock price evolution being a good example.

- challenge the statu quo: I am gonna go with Uber's Travis Kalanick. I love his strength to challenge what is widely perceived as a legally-protected dated monopoly (i.e. cab service) in pretty much all countries around the world. When customers love your service the regulators can do nothing but ultimately changing the rules of the game.

- dare to dream: nobody in my view is better at this than Elon Musk. From the hyperloop train to life in Mars; from space "tourist" travel to the perfect car. If I had to pick one guy as "the" visionary, I'd pick him. Such "visions" are sometimes broadly praised and some other times hammered. However, few people feel indifferent.

- learn, learn, learn: when Mark Zuckerberg started to take the stage as Facebook's CEO and main spokesperson he was widely criticized for his relative weakness with presentation and public speaking skills. He has invested time and effort in getting better and the results have been evident, his notorious recent presentation in Chinese being a great example. Just because one is at the top of the world does not mean that he knows it all. Be humble and never stop getting better.

- be generous: you can call tax planning...or you can call it giving back to the community. Or you can argue that it is a bit of both. But the huge contributions that the likes of Microsoft's founder Bill Gates continue to make to try to make the world a slightly better place should not be unnoticed.

These are just some ideas. There are a zillion others. But I do know that working for and/or with someone you admire and look up to makes your work more rewarding. Plus it commands an extra "something" that at the end of the day results in self-improvement, additional commitment and increased loyalty.